ECB Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

jan21ECB’s Mario Draghi this morning commenting that inflation is way down the line; he said there is no end to what the ECB will do to improve the outlook. Blowing in the wind; as we have noted recently central banks regardless of what they will or could do are becoming more impotent every day in the context of driving economic growth. Draghi said the bank needs to review its policy stance at its next meeting. The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged, but Draghi hinted the bank will review its stimulus at the March ECB meeting. The inflation rate in Europe was expected to pick up from the 0.2% recorded in December and average 1% this year, rising further in 2017. But Mr. Draghi said it is now possible that prices will start to fall again over coming months.

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What Happens When The Fed Raises Interest Rates?

Great video and article on CNBC about what happens when the FED raises the Federal Fund Rate “When the Fed raises rates, here’s what happens”.  Because this is the industry I’m in, this is the only event that’s been on my lips and it seems all of my borrowers and referral partners minds. The jury is split 50-50 on whether or not the Fed will raise their Federal fund rate. On one side you have the overly cautious and nervous jury that believes the economy is doing well enough that the Fed would raise their rates just to give themselves a little more power to combat inflation. On the other side you have the jury that believes there is absolutely no reason why the Fed would raise rates because it would have no positive effect on the economy given what’s happening globally. Ultimately if the Fed is careful about raising rates I believe that it is going to be healthy for the housing market and the economy. It might hurt a little bit at first but as rates go up private money will start to come back into the market and create a whole new segment of the housing market for people that have not been able to acquire loan since the meltdown. The reality is rates have been ridiculously low for a very long time and they’re not going to stay that way which is exactly why if you have not bought a home yet or you have a higher interest rate you should think about purchasing a new home or refinancing the one that you have. As interest rates go up your purchasing power goes down so I’m less sure of the school that prices are going to drop dramatically it makes no sense to wait because I don’t see rates going much lower than they are right now. I’ve been surprised before and we could see rates go down another half a point but were splitting hairs looking for “the perfect rate”. I’m bringing on new team members on to my team which will give me more time to do things like blog so hopefully I’m able to get a little bit more consistent with my blogging. In the meantime and across my fingers for everybody while we all wait for the Fed to make up their minds…



Barry Krevoy Featured In Executive Agent Magazine

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Daily Market Update May 12

may 12Looking for clear definitive answers to the recent spike in rates; you won’t find just one event or one issue. Global interest rates were and still are extremely low historically, the global stock markets are increasingly seen as being too high with the economic outlook not so strong. US Q1 GDP negative growth and Q2 according to the Atlanta Fed data isn’t likely to be much better. Given the recent action one thing does stand out, the world was too bullish on interest rates staying low and equity prices would continue to increase. (click the meter to see the whole story)



Daily Market Analysis April 20

apr 20Over the weekend, talks between the government and the institutions overseeing the Greek bailout took place in Paris. Negotiations have so far yielded little in terms of progress and European officials have cautioned that discussions between the two sides are nowhere near the point where bailout money can be disbursed. Chinese officials over the weekend made an attempt to cool the negativity that exploded last week by lessening the reserve requirements of banks hoping that would spur increased lending. The decision to lessen reserves in a sense counters Friday’s news that the government made it easier to short the Chinese markets, a move to calm global markets. It was the second in less than three months and the largest in magnitude since the 2008 financial crisis.



Daily Market Analysis April 13

april 13Recent enthusiasm that China might be recovering took a hit today when the country reported a decline in exports and imports. Overseas sales declined the most in more than a year in March while imports dropped as well. Exports fell 15% from a year ago in March, according to official data released Monday, forecasts were for a decline of 9.0%. China’s economy faces increasing downward pressure, Premier Li Keqiang said on China Central Television seminar. The government may announce policies to stabilize growth this quarter, according to an April 11 commentary in the China Securities Journal. Weakness in global economies encourages global investors to stay put in the US markets….(Click meter for full report)



Daily Market Analysis April 6 2015

april 6Employment in March was not good; non-farm jobs were thought to be up by 247K, as reported +126K. Private jobs were expected up 240K, as released +129K. The unemployment rate at 5.5%, unchanged from Feb was expected. Average hourly earnings a little better, up 0.3% with consensus at +0.2%. The U-6, those working part time or at jobs beneath their skill levels at 10.9% but it was the lowest reading since 2008. The labor participation rate at 62.7%, about what was expected. Overall a mixed picture but another report that suggests the US economy has slowed in Q1 and adds more credibility that Q2 is likely to be weaker than Q1, Q4 2014 and Q3 2014. In the 45 minutes stock indexes traded all were lower….



Daily Market Analysis

meterVery volatile markets yesterday; this morning after a nice recovery for the bond and mortgage markets yesterday, prices lower and yields higher. Crude oil fell over $4.00 yesterday and ended back below $50.00 traders see as a key level, this morning crude price is higher in early activity, up $1.00. Data at 8:30 weekly claims expected to have rebounded 25K after last week’s decline of 43K, claims up just 11K to 278K. Q4 productivity fell 1.8% against estimates of +0.2%; Q4 unit labor costs expected up 1.2% jumped 2.7%. The Dec trade deficit was expected at $39B, as reported $46.56. None of the data is helpful to the bond market; the stock indexes improving…..



Understanding The VA Loan

The VA loan is arguably one the the finest loans on the market and one of the most misunderstood loans by Veterans and Real Estate Agents alike. This video should answer 99% of any questions a Veteran, Real Estate Agent or a seller who has a VA offer would ask. I hope you enjoy it,  its about 15 minutes long but very informative

 



Weekly Rate Insider Dec 29 2014

weekly rate insider dec29According to  Sigma Research interest rate markets are starting out better this morning, with US stock indexes slightly lower prior to the 9:30 open. Greece is back in the headlines this morning after the Parliament failed to elect a new president. This means Greece will be forced into snap elections, renewing fears over the country’s financial problems. This has led to interest rates opening very slightly better this morning. Bond market forecasters are “sure” interest rates will increase, just as they were at the beginning of 2014. The 10 year note was trading at 3.00%. Now it is at 2.22%. In other words, the forecasters were far off the mark. The consensus is that the Fed will begin increasing its rates in the middle of the year. If it does, it will be the first rate increase in ten years.



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